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  3. Will Iran attack U.S. forces or bases before December 1, 2026?

Will Iran attack U.S. forces or bases before December 1, 2026?

Resolves YES if, between November 9, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, Iran's armed forces (including the IRGC) carry out at least one kinetic attack (missile, drone, rocket, artillery, naval or small-arms fire) against U.S. military personnel, bases, aircraft or naval vessels, as confirmed by the U.S. government (the White House, the Department of Defense/War, or CENTCOM) or reported by at least two major news organizations (such as Reuters, AP, CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, BBC). Resolves NO if

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