Resolves YES if, on or before November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC, either (a) the Associated Press projects Mary Peltola (D) as the winner of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska, or (b) the Alaska Division of Elections certifies Mary Peltola as the winner. Resolves NO if Dan Sullivan (R, the incumbent) is projected or certified as the winner, or if neither outcome has occurred by the deadline. Baseline at market creation (election night, Nov 3–4, 2026): the race was uncalled and razor-thin; the
